SMM Analysis：On December 25, SMM recorded the guidance price for domestic zinc concentrate TCs in January 2026 at 1,200–1,600 yuan/mt in metal content, with an average price of 1,400 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt MoM. Throughout the year, domestic zinc concentrate TCs rose first and then fell. In Q4, domestic zinc concentrate TCs largely repeated last year's pattern, with domestic zinc concentrate TCs seemingly set to return to historically low levels. However, recently, sentiment in the domestic zinc concentrate market has shown signs of warming up. Why is this......

Since Q4, China’s petroleum coke market supply side has shown a two-way divergence characterized by accelerated domestic capacity release and shrinking import supply. The supply-demand pattern is undergoing periodic adjustments. Domestically, refinery maintenance pace slowed significantly in Q4, with a sharp drop in new maintenance plans, while production resumptions at previously idled refineries accelerated. Some long-term idled enterprises also gradually resumed production, leading to a continued rebound in domestic petroleum coke output and a gradually emerging incremental effect from local supply.Demand side, since December, downstream enterprises showed increasing fear of high prices and buying sentiment slowed, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand. Due to insufficient support from both supply and demand, domestic petroleum coke prices started a continuous downward trend. Port petroleum coke offers declined accordingly, and the pace of port spot cargoes shipments slowed noticeably. Against the backdrop of an overall weak domestic fundamental, petroleum coke imports in December are expected to continue declining.

Based on SMM calculations, full-year exports are expected to reach around 2.28 million mt, continuing the growth trend. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by demand growth driven by continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to maintain growth, with the export increase expected to exceed 7%, and total exports climbing to around 2.45 million mt.

[SMM Analysis]Cost and Demand Game Continues, Secondary Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs in the Short Term

Cobalt sulphate prices were flat WoW, nickel sulphate prices were basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise sharply. Recently, spot and futures prices for lithium carbonate have continued to climb, with futures posting particularly strong gains. Combined with the arrival of the monthly just-in-time procurement period, LFP black mass prices per % lithium rose WoW in line with higher lithium chemical prices. Upstream grinding enterprises, after observing lithium carbonate supply-demand dynamics and policy developments, have grown relatively optimistic about future prices. Prices have also adjusted in response to futures, showing strong upward momentum. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, current prices stand at 4,300–4,650 yuan/mtu, up WoW. For ternary black mass, nickel and cobalt payables for ternary pole piece black mass currently range from 76% to 78%, up 0.5% WoW, while lithium payables are between 74% and 77%, up 1.5% WoW. The main reason is this week’s rise in lithium carbonate prices, coupled with relatively limited LCO black mass supply. Most enterprises currently hold limited cobalt inventory, and after clearing out old stock, have had to purchase new material from smelters, driving prices upward. The increase in lithium carbonate costs is gradually being passed through to the ternary and LCO segments, lifting both payables and prices for ternary and LCO black mass.